Beijing: China has officially approved the construction of what is set to become the largest dam in the world, located on the Brahmaputra River in Tibet, near the Indian border. The project, which will reportedly cost an estimated USD 137 billion, is poised to be the largest infrastructure project on the planet, surpassing even China’s iconic Three Gorges Dam, the largest hydroelectric project globally.
The dam will be built on the Yarlung Zangbo River, known as the Brahmaputra in India, at a strategic location where the river makes a significant U-turn in the Himalayas before flowing into Arunachal Pradesh, India, and later Bangladesh. The project was confirmed in an official statement from the Chinese government, reported by state-run Xinhua news agency on Wednesday.
According to the South China Morning Post, the total investment in the dam could exceed one trillion yuan (USD 137 billion), making it far larger than any other single infrastructure project worldwide. The dam’s scale is expected to dwarf even the Three Gorges Dam, which currently holds the title of the world’s largest hydropower facility. In 2015, China had already operationalized the Zam Hydropower Station, Tibet’s largest dam, which cost USD 1.5 billion.
Part of China’s ambitious 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), the Brahmaputra dam was also included in the National Economic and Social Development plan adopted by the Communist Party of China (CPC) in 2020. The project’s primary purpose is to harness the hydropower potential of the river, a resource-rich area that boasts significant energy production capacity.
India and Bangladesh Express Concerns
The dam’s construction has raised significant concerns in India and Bangladesh, both of which rely heavily on the Brahmaputra’s waters. Experts fear that the scale and location of the dam could give China significant control over the water flow, potentially disrupting the natural course of the river and impacting water availability downstream in both countries.
Indian officials are particularly wary of the possibility that, in times of political tensions, China could release large volumes of water from the dam, potentially flooding border areas in Arunachal Pradesh and beyond. India is also constructing its own dam over the Brahmaputra in Arunachal Pradesh, but it has expressed concerns about China’s lack of transparency on river data sharing, which is critical for flood forecasting.
India and China have an ongoing dialogue through the Expert Level Mechanism (ELM), established in 2006, to discuss trans-border rivers. Under this framework, China has agreed to provide hydrological data to India during the flood seasons. However, there remain concerns about the adequacy of information-sharing mechanisms, especially given the scale of this new dam.
During recent discussions in December between Indian National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, data-sharing on trans-border rivers was highlighted as a crucial area of cooperation. The Brahmaputra Dam, due to its unprecedented scale and strategic location, could make such dialogue even more urgent in the coming years.
Engineering Challenges and Ecological Impact
The dam site is located in one of the most seismically active regions of the world, along the boundary of tectonic plates, where earthquakes are frequent. Given the risks, the Chinese government has sought to reassure critics, stating that extensive geological surveys and technical advancements have been employed to ensure the dam’s structural integrity. An official statement emphasized that the project prioritizes ecological protection despite its ambitious scale.
Once completed, the dam is expected to generate more than 300 billion kWh of electricity annually — enough to power over 300 million people. According to Yan Zhiyong, former chairman of the state-owned Power Construction Corporation of China, the Yarlung Zangbo River is one of the most hydropower-rich areas in the world, with a vertical drop of 2,000 meters over a 50-kilometer stretch. This translates to an enormous potential energy output, significantly more than three times the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam.
The project is also expected to have a transformative impact on Tibet, generating an estimated annual income of USD 3 billion for the Tibet Autonomous Region. Moreover, it is part of China’s broader strategy to promote low-carbon development and create a clean energy base, integrating hydropower, wind, and solar energy resources in the region.
National Security and Strategic Goals
While touted as a vital project for environmental sustainability and energy production, Chinese officials have also framed the Brahmaputra dam as essential for national security, particularly regarding water resources. The dam is viewed as a strategic asset, potentially bolstering China’s energy security and its position in South Asia. The Chinese government has underscored that the project will play a significant role in advancing the country’s efforts towards carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, key components of its long-term development strategy.
China’s vision for the project extends beyond energy production, with plans to stimulate rapid industrial growth, including sectors like engineering, logistics, and trade services. The dam will also facilitate infrastructure improvements in Tibet and enhance the region’s connectivity to the broader Chinese economy.
As work on this massive project progresses, its implications for regional geopolitics and international relations, particularly with India and Bangladesh, are likely to remain a point of contention. The Brahmaputra dam represents not only a monumental engineering achievement but also a significant strategic and political challenge in the delicate relationship between these neighboring countries.